Analis Kripto Reku: Pertengahan Tahun Kinerja Bitcoin Cenderung Menurun
Release: 2024/07/31 18:24 Reading: 717
Bitcoin Price Performance Tends to Weaken Mid-Year
According to Reku crypto analyst, Fahmi Almuttaqin, Bitcoin's performance has shown a trend of declining prices in mid-year over the past 11 years. He suggests that this digital asset reflects the complex dynamics of the market. However, there are still positive prospects due to the high liquidity of BTC in the market.
Indications of Bitcoin Price Weakness Similar to 2021
To support his analysis, Fahmi cites data from Coinglass, which shows that in the past 11 years from 2013 to 2023, Bitcoin's performance has recorded price declines seven times in August and only four times in May.
This is further supported by observations from CryptoQuant, which suggest that Bitcoin's price weakness in mid-year could be similar to what occurred in 2021. The US crypto analytics firm used their developed Profit & Loss Index and Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicators.
Fahmi noted that this situation illustrates the more complex market dynamics that often occur during periods of transition.
"Within the last year, the price of Bitcoin has appreciated by over 100 percent. This increase was accompanied by a significant rise in altcoin prices, such as PEPE with a year-on-year gain of 782 percent, FLOKI with 657 percent, and Solana with 623 percent," Fahmi said in a written statement to the media on Wednesday (31/7/2024).
He continued by saying that this situation may trigger speculation, where investors might realize their profits while waiting for more favorable conditions, such as the end of the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate environment and the renewed adoption of decentralized applications that are currently in decline.
Bitcoin Ownership Increase and Fed Meeting as Market Determinants
However, Fahmi added that the growing interest in Bitcoin from traditional investors in the United States and the renewed accumulation of Bitcoin by large investors, known as whales, is worth noting.
"Data from Bitcoin Holder CryptoQuant shows an increase in Bitcoin ownership by large investors (whales) by 6.3 percent in the last month, which is the highest percentage increase since April 2023. This reflects the whales' optimism about Bitcoin, despite the mid-year price weakness projections made by some analysts," continued Fahmi.
Furthermore, the meeting of the United States central bank, the Federal Reserve, on July 31 is also an event that market participants will be paying close attention to.
"Even though it's highly likely that interest rates will remain unchanged, the views and outlook of the Fed officials presented at the meeting will provide important clues about monetary policy for the coming months," he added.
He noted that the market anticipates interest rate cuts to begin in September (see the CME FedWatch chart below), so any indication of a faster pace of rate cuts could serve as a strong positive catalyst, and vice versa.
Positive Prospects for Investors
Fahmi added that the trend of Bitcoin accumulation by large and traditional investors, including institutions in the US, is accompanied by increasing liquidity of Bitcoin in the market.
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