Bitcoin: Navigating the Bullish Battle Above $100K
Release: 2024/12/15 09:13 Reading: 453
Bitcoin: Navigating the Bullish March Above $100,000
This weekend has brought a downturn rather than the anticipated relief, with increased retracements and the emergence of bearish patterns. The highly anticipated "Santa rally" appears increasingly elusive amidst macroeconomic uncertainty weighing heavily on the market.
Several major cryptocurrencies are facing losses today, with notable decliners including SUI (-6.5% after peaking at an all-time high of $4.89 last Friday), PEPE, BONK, and Polkadot (all down approximately 6%). Cardano, Fantom, and Hedera have also fallen by over 5% each, reflecting a broad retreat across the altcoin market.
The global crypto market capitalization has declined to $3.6 trillion, marking a 1.2% loss in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin's dominance has increased slightly to 55.74% as investors seek safer assets amid uncertainty. The Altcoin Season Index on CoinMarketCap suggests that Bitcoin remains firmly in control of the market, leaving altcoins struggling to gain traction.
Bitcoin's Market Leadership
Rectangle Pattern and $74K Support
The rectangle pattern formed in February 2024 has broken upside, reaching its full target of $99,000 and now acting as a resistance level. The rectangle's upper edge at $74,000 serves as critical support and aligns with the 200-day moving average, which has historically provided strong support in bull markets. A break below $74K could trigger a wave of exits and a potential correction to around $49,000-$50,000.
Bull Flag and Target at $107K
The bull flag formed from the SEC's ETF approval in January 2024 remains active, with a target at $107,000. This target is mirrored by another bullish pennant pattern on the 4-hour chart. The alignment of these patterns reinforces Bitcoin's bullish potential.
Rising Wedge and Current Challenges
BTC is currently trapped in a rising wedge on the 4-hour chart, a bearish pattern. The wedge's bottom is formed by December's flash crashes. A break below the wedge would target a level close to the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $87,000.
Momentum Check
The daily RSI remains relatively bullish, holding above 64. However, the 4-hour RSI shows signs of exhaustion and bearish divergence, suggesting weakened momentum.
Key Trading Ideas
**Breakout Above $103K:** A daily close above $103K would invalidate the wedge and signal momentum to target $107K.
Trading the Wedge: Use the lower trendline of the wedge for potential long entries on price reversals.
Do Nothing: Wait until the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as markets remain hesitant. Consider scouting for entry points to capitalize on a likely retracement.
Summary:
As of Saturday night, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position. It is in a bullish posture but needs to invalidate the rising wedge with a strong close above $103,000 to gain full strength. The Fear & Greed Index has returned to Extreme Greed territory, suggesting overly optimistic sentiment. Altcoins will likely continue to struggle until Bitcoin resolves its current patterns.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.
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