Why The 4-Year Crypto Cycle Is A Thing Of The Past: Top-Analyst
Release: 2024/08/06 02:04 Reading: 531
- Original author：NewsBTC
- Original source：https://www.newsbtc.com/?p=633190
Is the Crypto Market Cycle a Thing of the Past?
Top analyst Jordan Fish, known as Cobie, challenges the long-held belief of a predictable four-year crypto market cycle. He argues that the traditional view may no longer be valid.
Unwinding the Traditional Cycle
Cobie ignited a debate on Twitter with his assertion that the current bull run has yet to begin. This sparked skepticism from some, but Cobie elaborated on his stance: "I am serious! Increasingly, I like the argument that this is not even a 'cycle', really, but it's more like 2019 with leverage and ETFs."
A New Market Landscape
According to Cobie, the introduction of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and the proliferation of leverage have fundamentally altered the market's dynamics. These instruments have changed capital flows, creating a less predictable and more fragmented landscape.
Dispersion and Divergence
Cobie emphasizes the high degree of dispersion in the current market, where individual assets behave differently rather than moving in unison as in previous cycles. This makes it difficult to identify a single driving force or pattern.
Echo Bubble Phenomenon
Cobie references the concept of the "echo bubble," where a smaller bubble follows the burst of a larger one. He expresses surprise at the behavior of renowned trader GCR, who predicted an echo bubble but later became bullish and acquired NFTs.
Market Outlook
Cobie suggests that the market is currently in a "multi-month/quarter cool-off reaccumulation period" for Bitcoin. He expects Bitcoin to trade within a range of $45,000 to $70,000, with a possibility of a brief breakout. However, he is pessimistic about the future of many altcoins, particularly those that have survived multiple cycles.
Shifting Risk Appetite
Cobie believes that the recent surge in memecoin investments has signaled a potential top for overall risk appetite. He anticipates that many older altcoins will lose relevance over time.
Conclusion
Cobie's analysis suggests a departure from the traditional crypto market cycle. He predicts continued market volatility and potential downside before a sustained bull run can resume.
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