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Reku加密货币分析师：年中比特币表现趋于下降
发布: 2024/07/31 18:24 阅读: 717
Bitcoin Price Performance Tends to Weaken Mid-Year
比特币价格表现在年中趋于走弱
According to Reku crypto analyst, Fahmi Almuttaqin, Bitcoin's performance has shown a trend of declining prices in mid-year over the past 11 years. He suggests that this digital asset reflects the complex dynamics of the market. However, there are still positive prospects due to the high liquidity of BTC in the market.
Reku加密货币分析师Fahmi Almuttaqin表示，过去11年来，比特币的表现一直呈现年中价格下跌的趋势。他认为这种数字资产反映了市场的复杂动态。但由于BTC市场流动性较高，前景仍看好。
Indications of Bitcoin Price Weakness Similar to 2021
比特币价格疲软迹象与 2021 年类似
To support his analysis, Fahmi cites data from Coinglass, which shows that in the past 11 years from 2013 to 2023, Bitcoin's performance has recorded price declines seven times in August and only four times in May.
为了支持他的分析，Fahmi 引用了 Coinglass 的数据，该数据显示，从 2013 年到 2023 年的 11 年里，比特币的表现在 8 月份出现了 7 次价格下跌，而 5 月份仅出现了 4 次。
This is further supported by observations from CryptoQuant, which suggest that Bitcoin's price weakness in mid-year could be similar to what occurred in 2021. The US crypto analytics firm used their developed Profit & Loss Index and Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicators.
CryptoQuant 的观察进一步支持了这一点，该观察表明比特币在年中的价格疲软可能与 2021 年发生的情况类似。这家美国加密分析公司使用了他们开发的损益指数和牛熊市场周期指标。
Fahmi noted that this situation illustrates the more complex market dynamics that often occur during periods of transition.
法赫米指出，这种情况说明了转型期间经常发生的更为复杂的市场动态。
"Within the last year, the price of Bitcoin has appreciated by over 100 percent. This increase was accompanied by a significant rise in altcoin prices, such as PEPE with a year-on-year gain of 782 percent, FLOKI with 657 percent, and Solana with 623 percent," Fahmi said in a written statement to the media on Wednesday (31/7/2024).
“去年，比特币的价格上涨了100%以上。这种上涨伴随着山寨币价格的大幅上涨，例如PEPE同比上涨782%，FLOKI同比上涨657%， Solana 的支持率为 623%，”Fahmi 在周三（2024 年 7 月 31 日）给媒体的一份书面声明中说道。
He continued by saying that this situation may trigger speculation, where investors might realize their profits while waiting for more favorable conditions, such as the end of the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate environment and the renewed adoption of decentralized applications that are currently in decline.
他继续表示，这种情况可能会引发投机，投资者可能会在等待更有利的条件的同时实现利润，例如美联储高利率环境的结束以及目前正在下降的去中心化应用程序的重新采用。
Bitcoin Ownership Increase and Fed Meeting as Market Determinants
比特币所有权增加和美联储会议作为市场决定因素
However, Fahmi added that the growing interest in Bitcoin from traditional investors in the United States and the renewed accumulation of Bitcoin by large investors, known as whales, is worth noting.
不过，法赫米补充说，美国传统投资者对比特币的兴趣日益浓厚，以及被称为“鲸鱼”的大型投资者重新积累比特币，值得注意。
"Data from Bitcoin Holder CryptoQuant shows an increase in Bitcoin ownership by large investors (whales) by 6.3 percent in the last month, which is the highest percentage increase since April 2023. This reflects the whales' optimism about Bitcoin, despite the mid-year price weakness projections made by some analysts," continued Fahmi.
“比特币持有者 CryptoQuant 的数据显示，上个月大型投资者（鲸鱼）的比特币持有量增加了 6.3％，这是自 2023 年 4 月以来的最高百分比增幅。这反映了鲸鱼对比特币的乐观态度，尽管年中一些分析师做出的价格疲软预测，”法赫米继续说道。
Furthermore, the meeting of the United States central bank, the Federal Reserve, on July 31 is also an event that market participants will be paying close attention to.
此外，7月31日的美国央行美联储会议也是市场人士密切关注的事件。
"Even though it's highly likely that interest rates will remain unchanged, the views and outlook of the Fed officials presented at the meeting will provide important clues about monetary policy for the coming months," he added.
他补充道：“尽管利率很可能保持不变，但美联储官员在会议上提出的观点和前景将为未来几个月的货币政策提供重要线索。”
He noted that the market anticipates interest rate cuts to begin in September (see the CME FedWatch chart below), so any indication of a faster pace of rate cuts could serve as a strong positive catalyst, and vice versa.
他指出，市场预计降息将于 9 月份开始（参见下面的 CME FedWatch 图表），因此任何加快降息步伐的迹象都可能成为强大的积极催化剂，反之亦然。
Positive Prospects for Investors
投资者的积极前景
Fahmi added that the trend of Bitcoin accumulation by large and traditional investors, including institutions in the US, is accompanied by increasing liquidity of Bitcoin in the market.
Fahmi补充说，包括美国机构在内的大型传统投资者积累比特币的趋势，伴随着市场上比特币流动性的增加。
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