Will Dogecoin skyrocket 7 months after the Bitcoin halving again?
比特币减半7个月后狗狗币会暴涨吗？
发布: 2024/04/26 04:52 阅读: 890
While Dogecoin (DOGE) price fell during the past month, historical data indicates that it could start its rally to new all-time highs around seven months after the Bitcoin halving.
虽然狗狗币（DOGE）价格在过去一个月下跌，但历史数据表明，它可能在比特币减半后七个月左右开始反弹至历史新高。
Dogecoin Price Rally in November?
11 月狗狗币价格上涨？
Dogecoin price is down nearly 8% on the daily chart and over 18% over the past month, but remains in line with the previous cycle's price action, suggesting that it could be on track toward new all-time highs.
狗狗币价格在日线图上下跌了近 8%，在过去一个月中下跌了 18% 以上，但仍与上一个周期的价格走势保持一致，表明它可能正在朝着新的历史高点迈进。
During the previous crypto bull market, Dogecoin started rallying in May 2020, or seven months after the 2020 Bitcoin halving, according to TradingView.
根据 TradingView 的数据，在上一次加密货币牛市期间，狗狗币于 2020 年 5 月开始上涨，即 2020 年比特币减半后七个月。
DOGE/USDT. 1-month chart. Source: TradingView
狗狗币/USDT。 1 个月图表。来源：TradingView
Dogecoin price rose to its all-time high of $0.73 on May 8, 2021, a year after the 2020 Bitcoin (BTC) halving. Dogecoin is currently 73% down from its previous all-time high.
2021 年 5 月 8 日，即 2020 年比特币 (BTC) 减半一年后，狗狗币价格升至 0.73 美元的历史新高。狗狗币目前较之前的历史高点下跌了 73%。
If this pattern were to repeat, Dogecoin price would reach a new all-time high in April 2025. However, technical analysis is difficult to apply to memecoins as their value is speculative.
如果这种模式重复，狗狗币价格将在 2025 年 4 月达到新的历史高点。然而，技术分析很难应用于模因币，因为它们的价值是投机性的。
Memecoins are a “manic market” purely driven by greed, with little understanding of the high risks, according to Robby Greenfield, founder of Umoja Labs.
Umoja Labs 创始人罗比·格林菲尔德 (Robby Greenfield) 表示，Memecoin 是一个纯粹由贪婪驱动的“疯狂市场”，对高风险知之甚少。
However, Greenfield expects some memecoins to maintain a high valuation. He told Cointelegraph:
不过，格林菲尔德预计一些模因币将维持高估值。他告诉 Cointelegraph：
“Some of these tokens, like DOGE and PEPE will continue to legitimize as exchanges like Coinbase introduce memecoin futures markets. Given the large, cult-like communities behind these assets, it’s likely that they will remain as higher-cap cryptos than even most legitimate project-backed tokens."
“随着 Coinbase 等交易所引入 memecoin 期货市场，其中一些代币，如 DOGE 和 PEPE 将继续合法化。考虑到这些资产背后有庞大的、类似邪教的社区，它们很可能仍然是比大多数合法项目支持的代币更高市值的加密货币。”
Related: Bitcoin Outperforms Tesla Stock for the First Time Since 2019
相关：比特币自 2019 年以来首次跑赢特斯拉股票
Memecoins Offer Fairer Market Access?
Memecoin 提供更公平的市场准入？
Numerous cryptocurrencies have launched with a high fully diluted valuation (FDV) and significant venture capitalist (VC) allocation during 2024, prompting some analysts to argue that "money-hungry VCs" are bad for cryptocurrencies long term.
2024 年，许多加密货币的推出都具有较高的完全稀释估值 (FDV) 和大量风险投资家 (VC) 分配，这促使一些分析师认为，“缺钱的风险投资”从长远来看对加密货币不利。
Thus, retail investors could be seeing memecoins with no VC allocations as the fairest market opportunity, according to Gianluca Sacco, chief operating officer at VALR. He told Cointelegraph:
因此，VALR 首席运营官 Gianluca Sacco 表示，散户投资者可能会将没有风险投资分配的 memecoin 视为最公平的市场机会。他告诉 Cointelegraph：
“These tokens are being seen as the fairest opportunity to participate in the crypto market right now, while the communities around them are just a lot of fun to be involved in… Many feel burnt by high FDV, low issuance tokens that have historically been offered by token projects at deep discounts to insiders and VCs at the expense of retail users.”
“这些代币被视为目前参与加密货币市场的最公平的机会，而参与它们周围的社区也很有趣……许多人对历史上提供的高 FDV、低发行代币感到焦灼。通过代币项目向内部人士和风险投资家提供大幅折扣，而牺牲零售用户的利益。”
Other memecoins like Pepe (PEPE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), Dogwifhat (WIF), and Floki (FLOKI) saw double-digit gains during the past week, according to TradingView.
根据 TradingView 的数据，Pepe (PEPE)、Shiba Inu (SHIB)、Dogwifhat (WIF) 和 Floki (FLOKI) 等其他模因币在过去一周都出现了两位数的涨幅。
Pepe, Shib, Wif, Floki, 7-day chart. Source: TradingView
Pepe、Shib、Wif、Floki，7 日图。来源：TradingView
Yet, this only suggests a temporary surge of interest in some memecoins, not the resurgence of a memecoin "altseason," according to Diane Dai, the CMO of Dodo. Dai told Cointelegraph:
然而，Dodo 首席营销官 Diane Dai 表示，这仅表明人们对某些模因币的兴趣暂时激增，而不是模因币“替代季节”的复苏。戴告诉 Cointelegraph：
“Despite the double-digit price increases, trading volume remains low, indicating insufficient market liquidity. The significant price fluctuations of memecoins are not enough to prove an influx of investors into the memecoin market after the halving event.”
“尽管价格上涨了两位数，但交易量仍然很低，表明市场流动性不足。 Memecoin 价格的大幅波动不足以证明减半事件后投资者涌入 memecoin 市场。”
The daily trading volume of memecoins fell over 17% in the past 24 hours to $6.58 billion. The market capitalization of memecoins was down 5.8% to $52.8 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Memecoin 的日交易量在过去 24 小时内下降了 17% 以上，至 65.8 亿美元。根据 CoinMarketCap 数据，memecoin 的市值下降 5.8% 至 528 亿美元。
Top memecoins by market cap. Source: CoinMarketCap
按市值排名的顶级模因币。资料来源：CoinMarketCap
Related: Bitcoin Price Breaks Above $66K — Has BTC Flipped Bullish Again?
相关：比特币价格突破 6.6 万美元——比特币是否再次看涨？
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。
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