Korelasi Kripto dan Saham Meningkat, Oktober Siap Jadi Bulan Cerah?
加密货币相关性和股市上涨，十月准备好成为阳光明媚的月份了吗？
发布: 2024/09/29 13:34 阅读: 375
Report Shows Correlation Between Crypto and Stock Markets Hits Historic High
报告显示加密货币与股票市场之间的相关性创历史新高
According to a Coinbase research report, the correlation between the crypto and stock markets reached a record high in September 2024, standing at approximately 50 percent. This surge is largely attributed to the implementation of accommodative monetary policies in the US and China.
根据 Coinbase 的研究报告，加密货币与股票市场的相关性在 2024 年 9 月创下历史新高，约为 50%。这一激增很大程度上归因于美国和中国实施宽松的货币政策。
Key economic events in recent months have hinted at an increasing recognition among investors that the two markets are moving in tandem, leading to bullish sentiment heading into October, which has historically been a strong month for crypto.
近几个月来的重大经济事件暗示投资者越来越认识到这两个市场正在同步发展，从而导致进入 10 月份的看涨情绪，从历史上看，这对于加密货币来说是一个强劲的月份。
Impact of Monetary Policy on Crypto Markets
货币政策对加密货币市场的影响
Aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have played a significant role in driving this correlation. Following the announcement of a 50 basis point cut, Bitcoin surged past the $64,000 mark, accompanied by gains in crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Microstrategy (MSTR).
美联储的大幅降息在推动这种相关性方面发挥了重要作用。在宣布降息 50 个基点后，比特币飙升至 64,000 美元大关，伴随着 Coinbase (COIN) 和 Microstrategy (MSTR) 等加密相关股票的上涨。
Data suggests that these moves aimed at stimulating economic growth have had a positive spillover effect on both the stock and crypto markets, providing a boost to both asset classes.
数据表明，这些旨在刺激经济增长的举措对股票和加密货币市场产生了积极的溢出效应，从而提振了这两个资产类别。
Emerging Interplay Between Stock and Crypto Markets
股票和加密货币市场之间新兴的相互作用
Recent developments have witnessed a convergence between US stock futures and crypto prices. Several major US indices notched new highs, coinciding with Bitcoin's ascent.
最近的事态发展见证了美国股票期货和加密货币价格之间的趋同。美国几个主要指数创下新高，与比特币的上涨同时发生。
In fact, the 40-day correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and the top 100 cryptocurrencies reached 0.67, approaching its previous high of 0.72 set in 2022.
事实上，标准普尔 500 指数与排名前 100 的加密货币之间的 40 天相关系数达到 0.67，接近 2022 年创下的 0.72 的历史高点。
This indicates an increasingly intertwined relationship, where investors are now assessing risks in both stock and crypto markets in a more similar manner.
这表明一种日益交织的关系，投资者现在正在以更加相似的方式评估股票和加密货币市场的风险。
Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin Amid Correlation Trend
在相关性趋势中，以太坊的表现优于比特币
Amid this period of elevated correlation, Ethereum has notably outperformed Bitcoin. Recent data shows Ethereum gained 8 percent relative to Bitcoin in the week following the Fed's rate cut announcement.
在这段相关性较高的时期，以太坊的表现明显优于比特币。最近的数据显示，在美联储宣布降息后的一周内，以太坊相对于比特币上涨了 8%。
Even over the past week, Ethereum has continued to outperform, rallying 6.08 percent compared to Bitcoin's 4.77 percent gain.
即使在过去一周，以太坊仍继续跑赢大盘，上涨 6.08%，而比特币则上涨 4.77%。
However, some bearish sentiment toward Ethereum lingers, mainly centered around the recent sale of 100,000 ETH by the Ethereum Foundation, which has sold over 3,500 ETH this year.
然而，对以太坊的一些看跌情绪依然存在，主要集中在以太坊基金会最近出售了 100,000 ETH，今年该基金会已出售了超过 3,500 ETH。
This move has raised concerns about its impact on market sentiment and the progress of projects within the Ethereum ecosystem.
此举引起了人们对其对市场情绪和以太坊生态系统内项目进展的影响的担忧。
Altcoins and Other Crypto Sectors
山寨币和其他加密货币领域
Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, other segments of the crypto market have also shown impressive performance. Altcoins are seeing renewed interest, with coins like Shiba Inu and PEPE experiencing price surges.
除了比特币和以太坊之外，加密货币市场的其他领域也表现出了令人印象深刻的表现。随着 Shiba Inu 和 PEPE 等代币的价格飙升，人们对山寨币重新产生了兴趣。
Sectors such as gaming, , and scaling solutions have emerged as top performers, posting weekly percentage gains of 9%, 17%, and 11%, respectively.
游戏、云计算和扩展解决方案等行业表现最佳，每周百分比涨幅分别为 9%、17% 和 11%。
The maturing crypto market is increasingly susceptible to macroeconomic conditions. Historically, crypto has tended to move independently of traditional financial markets.
成熟的加密货币市场越来越容易受到宏观经济条件的影响。从历史上看，加密货币往往独立于传统金融市场而发展。
However, with the growing participation of institutional investors, crypto price action is now more influenced by global economic factors, including interest rate decisions and monetary policy.
然而，随着机构投资者的参与不断增加，加密货币价格走势现在更多地受到全球经济因素的影响，包括利率决策和货币政策。
As we approach October, the crypto market faces conditions that have typically been favorable. Over the past 10 years, Bitcoin has posted price gains in 8 out of 10 Octobers.
随着十月份的临近，加密货币市场面临着通常有利的条件。在过去 10 年里，比特币在 10 月中有 8 次出现价格上涨。
This has led to expectations that the positive correlation between stock and crypto markets will persist, offering potential opportunities for investor gains.
这导致人们预期股票和加密货币市场之间的正相关性将持续存在，为投资者带来潜在的收益机会。
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